Tools/Expectancy

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Expectancy calculator

A method is not good because it wins often. It is good because what it wins, on average, exceeds what it loses. This is the arithmetic that settles the argument.

Out of your last 50 trades or more, not your best week.
Expectancy per trade
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Reward to risk
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How it works

Expectancy = (hit rate × average win) − (miss rate × average loss). A positive number means the method makes money across a large sample. A negative number means it does not, and no amount of position sizing repairs that.

A 40% hit rate with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio is profitable. An 80% hit rate with a 1:5 ratio is not. The hit rate on its own tells you almost nothing, which is why it is the number most often quoted.